By Rev. Donald L. Perryman, Ph.D.
The Truth Contributor
A vote is a kind of prayer about the kind of world we want to live in.
– Rev. Dr. William Barber
With less than two weeks remaining in the 2024 election season, you can almost cut the tension in the air with a knife, and it’s not just a national phenomenon. Once comfortably predictable, local races have become tight, dramatic and, in many cases, impossible to forecast, making many local politicians extremely uncomfortable.
Whether due to economic anxiety, voter fatigue, or decision paralysis resulting from the constant bombarding of political ads, social media posts, and campaign outreach, shifting political winds are converging in a way that makes this election feel different. Nothing is guaranteed as the votes roll in, and even the safest races could be upended.
The Marcy Kaptur Dilemma: End of an Era?
One of the most striking examples of uncertainty is Ohio’s 9th District congressional race between long-serving Democrat Marcy Kaptur and her Republican challenger, Derek Merrin. Kaptur has been a fixture in Ohio politics for over four decades, but now, for the first time in 40 years, her seat is truly up for grabs. Although Kaptur has a narrow lead in recent polling, 16 percent of voters remain undecided. This race is so significant that the outcome could determine control of the U.S. House of Representatives. Yet the contest is so tight that it’s impossible to predict a clear winner even at the 11th hour.
Yet, even as voters head to the polls, they grapple with rising costs despite national economic experts debating the reality of inflation’s impact. This economic anxiety plays directly into Merrin’s message for change, making the once-safe Kaptur seat a toss-up. Kaptur’s decades of service and connections to bountiful federal resources and demonstrated ability to bring them back to her district could prove beneficial. However, nothing is guaranteed in an environment where many voters crave something new.
Tax-Levy Hesitation
While Lucas County’s congressional race is one headline, the local tax levies may be the most precarious aspect of this election. The rule of thumb has always been that levies never lose in election years in Lucas County, and no one remembers the last time it happened. However, the current economic climate, marked by a perceived rise in inflation, is fueling uncertainty and hesitation among voters, and levies that usually sail through could be facing their toughest battles yet.
With local media constantly highlighting the pinch of rising prices, voters are more aware of their financial constraints, even if the statistics show inflation to be within normal bounds.
In addition, with the repetition of negative ads drilling the misleading message that inflation is through the roof and killing single families, some levy requests for new money could fail. The other challenge for tax measure proponents is getting their story out in an environment where there’s so much noise just about the presidential, senatorial and congressional elections, especially with so many levies being simultaneously on the ballot.
The recent rise in property values provides an even more challenging variable, complicating new levies and adding financial pressure on voters already overwhelmed by economic uncertainty.
However, if you are looking for a couple of “must-support” options, a yes vote for Issue 29, Senior Citizen Services, and Issue 30, Children Services tax measures are at the top of my list.
Candidates in Traditional Democratic Strongholds: Safe, But Not Without Drama
Despite the overall political anxiety, many Lucas County Democratic candidates still seem to be in strong positions. Candidates like Pete Gerken, Anita Lopez, Katie Moline and Elgin Rogers are expected to secure re-election easily. These incumbents have maintained a grip on their local strongholds by remaining insulated from the broader dissatisfaction sweeping through national and state races.
That said, the contest between Republican incumbent Josh Williams and Democratic challenger David Blythe is a serious campaign. It perhaps is the local race to watch, especially in terms of the state legislature.
While Williams, the incumbent, is slightly favored to win, Blythe’s strong campaign efforts and the district’s redrawn lines could prove that no race is a foregone conclusion and possibly flip the seat to the Democratic Party column.
Notably, in the 2020 election, Lucas County was 76th out of Ohio’s 88 counties in terms of turnout and below Cleveland, Columbus and Cincinnati. We have not been able to generate a blue wave in terms of voter interest recently. So, in this environment, turnout will be crucial, and the unpredictability of voter engagement still makes even the safest-seeming races feel vulnerable to last-minute shifts.
Mayor Wade Kapszukiewicz and the Term Limit Referendum in the Spotlight
The Mayoral Term Limits Charter Amendment has generated significant discussion among the key local ballot issues. With a yes vote, this measure would increase the number of consecutive four-year mayoral terms from two to three. A no-vote majority would potentially end Mayor Wade Kapszukiewicz’s future political career in the city’s top office. The measure is polling too close for comfort, with a razor-slim majority favoring the term limit expansion.
While many voters are satisfied with Wade’s performance, there’s still a growing sentiment that fresh leadership is needed. In a year where change is a prevailing theme, the referendum’s outcome is uncertain but could reshape local politics for years.
Issue One: The Redistricting Puzzle
Adding to the political guesswork is Issue One, the Citizens Redistricting Commission initiative. This measure, designed to end partisan gerrymandering in Ohio, has created a fog of confusion among voters. Both supporters and opponents claim their vote will end gerrymandering, leaving many unsure of which side to support.
Nevertheless, the stakes are high, as the outcome could drastically reshape Ohio’s political landscape by aligning district representation more closely with the state’s actual voter distribution. Yet, with the odds of passage at 50/50 and a lack of clear messaging on either side, the fate of Issue One remains one of the most unpredictable elements of this election cycle.
Considering all of this, it becomes clear that this is a pivotal moment in this election season, if not history. Lucas County voters are headed to the polls in anxiety amidst deep uncertainty.
From Marcy Kaptur’s possible end to the wave of local tax levies on the chopping block, which candidates will survive? What tax levies or referendums will make the cut?
With only a handful of days left to November 5, what remains clear is that every race, levy, and issue is precariously tight and too close for comfort; every decision hangs in the balance, waiting to be shaped by the voters’ final say.
Contact Rev. Donald Perryman, PhD, at drdlperryman@enterofhopebaptist.org