By Rev. Donald L. Perryman, Ph.D.
The Truth Contributor
There is no such uncertainty as a sure thing. – Robert Burns
It appears the Republican Party has tripped over its own feet and fumbled the ball—giving Marcy Kaptur valuable field position in the fiercely contested race for Ohio’s 9th District House seat.
On paper, Republicans held a major advantage. Kaptur barely survived in 2024, winning by roughly 2,400 votes—the closest race of her career—perhaps aided by a third-party candidate who drew four percent (15,381 votes).
The Republicans smelled blood, energized by a redrawn district that had shifted sharply to the right, moving from Trump +7 to Trump +11. The change made Kaptur appear more vulnerable than ever and suggested that this could finally be the GOP’s big moment in northwestern Ohio.
Yet, the biggest turning point came when “heavyweight” Ohio Senate President Rob McColley, Kaptur’s strongest potential Republican challenger, exited the contest to join Vivek Ramaswamy’s gubernatorial ticket. While that move certainly boosted the statewide ticket, it simultaneously removed Republicans’ most decisive path to flipping OH-9.
In the wake of McColley’s departure, Republicans now face a crowded, cage-match-like primary that could be a brutal internal bloodbath. The field now features Derek Merrin, state Representative Josh Williams, Air Force veteran Alea Nadeem, former ICE deputy director Madison Sheahan and others. Some are retreads. Others are untested. One is vulnerable to residency questions. Each brings liabilities; none commands universal confidence.
Adding to the turmoil, the Lucas County Republican Party’s sudden move to tighten endorsement rules—effectively introducing a residency requirement—signals panic rather than confidence. “We don’t want somebody who doesn’t live in the district or hasn’t lived in the district to represent the district,” said executive committee member Tom Waniewski, according to The Blade. Waniewski called such a candidacy “disingenuous” and “not fair to the people who end up voting for that person.” What should have been a fairly certain march toward victory has devolved into an argument in the huddle over who dropped the ball.
While Republicans struggle internally, Kaptur, meanwhile, watches from the sidelines—hands clean, a disciplined message and a full war chest.
“Campaign money is the mother’s milk of politics,” a Democratic operative said. By late 2025, she had over $1.2 million in cash, while her opponents remained divided and underfunded. She knows Williams and has beaten Merrin. She understands the district: win Toledo decisively, secure her Democratic base, and draw enough rural support in Henry, Williams, Fulton and Defiance counties to survive.
That has been Marcy’s playbook for years. She has brought millions from Washington to her urban Democratic strongholds and also directed enough to rural Republican groups, such as farmers, to edge out wins. Kaptur has proved she can appeal to rural voters and needs just 42 percent support in places like Henry and Williams Counties in a low-turnout midterm.
The Bottom Line
Ohio’s 9th U.S. Congressional District was ripe for the taking. Republicans had everything in their favor—the numbers, the map, and the momentum.
Then they dropped the ball.
Vivek Ramaswamy pulled a man “who’s got juice” and the president of the Ohio Senate, Rob McColley, from the game. However, instead of consolidating around another strong nominee, the Lucas County GOP splintered, began fighting among themselves, and opened old wounds, exposing their vulnerabilities. Instead of forcing Marcy Kaptur to defend her record, they forced each other to defend their résumés, residency, and credibility.
Kaptur hasn’t won yet. However, Republicans’ self-inflicted missteps have put her back on the field—hands on the ball, high-stepping, and headed towards the endzone.
It is clear that the Republicans had every advantage, including a big lead. It’s also clear that they didn’t know what to do with it.
Contact Rev. Donald Perryman, PhD, at drdlperryman@centerofhopebaptist.org