By Steve Flagg
Guest Column
As a child, I was fascinated by flight. From radio-controlled planes to model rockets, I immersed myself in building, flying, launching, and understanding the science of why things fly. That childhood curiosity came rushing back recently when I read about an audacious operation by Ukraine that blends science, strategy, and sheer ingenuity: Operation Spiderweb.
In a stunning demonstration of asymmetrical warfare, Ukraine deployed an estimated 117 low-cost, virtually autonomous drones to destroy as much as $7 billion worth of Russian aircraft. The drones, costing between $200,000 and $500,000 in total, struck at airbases deep inside Russia—a return on investment so lopsided it reads like fiction. But it was real. The details are astonishing.
The drones were smuggled in the camouflaged compartments of wooden containers with remotely controlled roofs, driven by truck to nine Russian regions, and launched in coordinated waves. According to independent military analysts, these drones navigated without GPS or Starlink, instead relying on dead reckoning—navigation using landmarks and calculation based upon direction, speed and distance travelled, AI-driven object recognition, and local mobile networks
Ukraine’s clever twist? They embedded SIM cards that tapped into Russia’s 3G/4G cellular networks, turning the Russian telecom grid into an unwitting partner. The drones streamed video and telemetry data back to Ukrainian operators in real time, allowing for target confirmation and mid-flight corrections. The entire civilian telecom infrastructure became an unknowing pawn in the Ukrainian war machine.
The brilliance of Operation Spiderweb isn’t just in its execution but in what it reveals: the vulnerability of traditional military hardware and infrastructure. Defending against such attacks would require massive investments over many years in physical defenses, cybersecurity, and communications infrastructure— likely costing hundreds of millions of dollars, not to mention the economic burden of regulating or hardening telecom networks.
At the same time, AI-guided drones are rapidly redrawing the rules of the battlefield. Tanks, carriers, fighter jets—once symbols of strength—are now lumbering giants. Expensive. Exposed. Obsolete. Consider the U.S.-supplied Abrams tanks in Ukraine. All 31 have reportedly been destroyed by Russian drones.
With each Abrams costing up to $30 million, that’s nearly a billion dollars neutralized by relatively cheap, often commercially adapted drone systems. Or take a U.S. aircraft carrier strike group. A Ford-class carrier costs over $13 billion. Add destroyers, cruisers, submarines, and aircraft, and you’re looking at $30 billion or more in assets.
Yet a coordinated swarm of drones—costing a fraction—could pose an existential threat. The math isn’t just sobering, it’s paradigm-shifting. This isn’t hypothetical. AI-enabled weapons are already in the field. Loitering munitions, autonomous underwater drones, and ground robots are transforming warfare into something less about manpower and more about microprocessors. AI doesn’t fatigue. It doesn’t flinch. And it doesn’t need a billion-dollar runway.
The implications stretch beyond cost. Conventional military doctrine, training, and procurement cycles—often spanning decades—are no match for the pace of AI and drone innovation, which evolves monthly. Nations that cling to legacy systems will find themselves outmaneuvered by adversaries who embrace distributed, autonomous, and low-cost tactics.
If we fail to evolve our doctrine and procurement, we risk losing the next war before the first shot is fired. And yet, even as the battlefield evolves, the symbolism of power—steel-clad parades, billion-dollar tanks—remains stuck in the past.
This June, the U.S. rolled out Abrams tanks in a military parade marking the 250th anniversary of the U.S. Army. It may be a grand spectacle, but one that rings hollow when set against the lessons of Ukraine. We’re celebrating dinosaurs, not strategizing for the future.
Operation Spiderweb isn’t just a successful mission. It’s a missile aimed at the heart of conventional military doctrine. It is an emphatic statement that the next war won’t be won by whoever has the biggest ship or the fastest jet. It will be won by who has the smartest swarm. The future is here, and the battlefield’s dinosaurs are marching toward extinction.