By Rev. Donald L. Perryman, Ph.D.
The Truth Contributor
Politics is the art of the possible. – Otto von Bismarck
Grapevine rumblings concerning speculation about Toledo’s future leadership are intensifying with the fast-approaching November ballot, deciding whether Mayor Wade Kapszukiewicz can pursue a third term.
If voters reject the proposed charter amendment and the mayor is denied a third term, we can expect a wild-west-like free-for-all with several potential candidates ready to jump into the fray.
Notably, it is an open secret that Toledo City Councilmen Nick Komives, John Hobbs III, and Councilwoman Carrie Hartman will likely run to succeed Kapszukiewicz if the legislation for term limits does not pass.
Komives has been a staple in Toledo’s political scene and is known for his progressive policy initiatives. However, he may face challenges from the Building Trades and the business community that have not favored him historically. Whether Komives can broaden his appeal beyond his current base to become a viable mayoral candidate remains to be seen.
John Hobbs is strategically positioning himself by increasing his visibility in the media and building political alliances, a tried-and-true formula for those considering a mayoral run. Carrie Hartman, a constant presence with current administration insiders, including Mike Beazley, is also rumored to be in the race. Hartman, too, has been more visible lately, attending events along with the mayor and advocating on various issues, although her stance on homelessness has faced criticism. Should the charter amendment fail, expect Hartman to be the “insider’s choice” to replace Wade as the next mayor.
Councilman George Sarantou is another interesting name being floated who could receive strong backing. According to political insiders, the business community would likely support Sarantou over Hartman, Hobbs and Komives. In addition, the Building Trades have always endeared Sarantou. These endorsements are significant in local elections, creating a challenging dynamic for other potential candidates.
Local 92, the firefighters union, is also a significant player that could influence the outcome of the charter amendment. Their stalking and threatened opposition to Kapszukiewicz over ongoing contract negotiations could be a formidable obstacle if they decide to campaign against him and the charter amendment.
The firefighters have a history of shaping political narratives and creating pressure points, particularly during their grievances. If they do decide to oppose Mayor Kapszukiewicz’s bid for a third term, it could pose a significant challenge for him.
The business community’s perception of Toledo’s economy is another critical factor. Currently, economic growth in Toledo is on a notable upswing, marked by a surge in business applications, a reduction in crime rates and an increase in trade exports and employment. According to a recent study by CoworkingCafe, Toledo ranks 20th among mid-sized cities in economic growth, highlighting improvements in the labor market, median earnings and local business investments.
Therefore, if Kapszukiewicz can secure endorsements from influential business leaders like Bruce Rumph and other high-profile figures, it could be a game-changer for him or any candidate looking to help balance the scales against potential Local 92 opposition.
Meanwhile, the stance of the African American community or other key demographics remains unclear where their support might land, adding another layer of uncertainty.
Navigating these complex dynamics will be crucial to Mayor Kapszukiewicz’s gaining a third term. His response to the pressure of the firefighters’ union will shape his chances to extend his time in office. Effectively framing his pursuit of the amendment as a move for future governance rather than self-interest could help. However, failing to manage the narrative may lead to further challenges or doom the passage of the proposed charter amendment.
The timing of the city council races also adds complexity. At-large members like Hartman and Komives must decide between running for council or mayor, potentially forcing them to invest all their political capital into one high-stakes bid. Additionally, a figure like Tom Waniewski could leverage name recognition from his race against Pete Gerken for county commissioner and disrupt the status quo.
Yet, the what-if scenarios continue. One also wonders whether longtime Lucas County Commissioner Pete Gerken will run for mayor should the charter amendment fail to pass.
For certain, November can’t get here fast enough as the coming months will be telling as speculation, debate, and strategic moves reveal the priorities and direction Toledo voters envision for their future.
Contact Rev. Donald Perryman, PhD, at drdlperryman@centerofhopebaptist.org