{"id":18380,"date":"2026-01-29T20:17:57","date_gmt":"2026-01-29T20:17:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/wordpress.thetruthtoledo.com\/?p=18380"},"modified":"2026-01-29T20:17:57","modified_gmt":"2026-01-29T20:17:57","slug":"how-a-safe-bet-became-uncertain","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wordpress.thetruthtoledo.com\/index.php\/2026\/01\/29\/how-a-safe-bet-became-uncertain\/","title":{"rendered":"How a Safe Bet Became Uncertain"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"
Donald Perryman<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

By Rev. Donald L. Perryman, Ph.D.
\nThe Truth Contributor<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0There is no such uncertainty as a sure thing. \u00a0<\/em>\u2013 <\/em>Robert Burns<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

It appears the Republican Party has tripped over its own feet and fumbled the ball\u2014giving Marcy Kaptur valuable field position in the fiercely contested race for Ohio\u2019s 9th<\/sup> District House seat.<\/p>\n

On paper, Republicans held a major advantage. Kaptur barely survived in 2024, winning by roughly 2,400 votes\u2014the closest race of her career\u2014perhaps aided by a third-party candidate who drew four percent (15,381 votes).<\/p>\n

The Republicans smelled blood, energized by a redrawn district that had shifted sharply to the right, moving from Trump +7 to Trump +11. The change made Kaptur appear more vulnerable than ever and suggested that this could finally be the GOP\u2019s big moment in northwestern Ohio.<\/p>\n

Yet, the biggest turning point came when \u201cheavyweight\u201d Ohio Senate President Rob McColley, Kaptur\u2019s strongest potential Republican challenger, exited the contest to join Vivek Ramaswamy\u2019s gubernatorial ticket. While that move certainly boosted the statewide ticket, it simultaneously removed Republicans\u2019 most decisive path to flipping OH-9.<\/p>\n

In the wake of McColley\u2019s departure, Republicans now face a crowded, cage-match-like primary that could be a brutal internal bloodbath. The field now features Derek Merrin, state Representative Josh Williams, Air Force veteran Alea Nadeem, former ICE deputy director Madison Sheahan and others. Some are retreads. Others are untested. One is vulnerable to residency questions. Each brings liabilities; none commands universal confidence.<\/p>\n

Adding to the turmoil, the Lucas County Republican Party\u2019s sudden move to tighten endorsement rules\u2014effectively introducing a residency requirement\u2014signals panic rather than confidence. \u201cWe don\u2019t want somebody who doesn\u2019t live in the district or hasn\u2019t lived in the district to represent the district,\u201d said executive committee member Tom Waniewski, according to The Blade. Waniewski called such a candidacy \u201cdisingenuous\u201d and \u201cnot fair to the people who end up voting for that person.\u201d What should have been a fairly certain march toward victory has devolved into an argument in the huddle over who dropped the ball.<\/p>\n

While Republicans struggle internally, Kaptur, meanwhile, watches from the sidelines\u2014hands clean, a disciplined message and a full war chest.<\/p>\n

\u201cCampaign money is the mother\u2019s milk of politics,\u201d a Democratic operative said. By late 2025, she had over $1.2 million in cash, while her opponents remained divided and underfunded. She knows Williams and has beaten Merrin. She understands the district: win Toledo decisively, secure her Democratic base, and draw enough rural support in Henry, Williams, Fulton and Defiance counties to survive.<\/p>\n

That has been Marcy\u2019s playbook for years. She has brought millions from Washington to her urban Democratic strongholds and also directed enough to rural Republican groups, such as farmers, to edge out wins. Kaptur has proved she can appeal to rural voters and needs just 42 percent support in places like Henry and Williams Counties in a low-turnout midterm.<\/p>\n

The Bottom Line<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ohio\u2019s 9th U.S. Congressional District was ripe for the taking. Republicans had everything in their favor\u2014the numbers, the map, and the momentum.<\/p>\n

Then they dropped the ball.<\/p>\n

Vivek Ramaswamy pulled a man \u201cwho\u2019s got juice\u201d and the president of the Ohio Senate, Rob McColley, from the game. However, instead of consolidating around another strong nominee, the Lucas County GOP splintered, began fighting among themselves, and opened old wounds, exposing their vulnerabilities. Instead of forcing Marcy Kaptur to defend her record, they forced each other to defend their r\u00e9sum\u00e9s, residency, and credibility.<\/p>\n

Kaptur hasn\u2019t won yet. However, Republicans\u2019 self-inflicted missteps have put her back on the field\u2014hands on the ball, high-stepping, and headed towards the endzone.<\/p>\n

It is clear that the Republicans had every advantage, including a big lead. It\u2019s also clear that they didn\u2019t know what to do with it.<\/p>\n

Contact Rev. Donald Perryman, PhD, at <\/em>drdlperryman@centerofhopebaptist.org<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Rev. Donald L. Perryman, Ph.D. The Truth Contributor \u00a0\u00a0There is no such uncertainty as a sure thing. \u00a0\u2013 Robert Burns It appears the Republican Party has tripped over its own feet and fumbled the ball\u2014giving Marcy Kaptur valuable field position in the fiercely contested race for Ohio\u2019s 9th District House seat. On paper, Republicans […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[55,252],"tags":[],"wf_post_folders":[332],"class_list":["post-18380","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-editorial-opinion","category-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/wordpress.thetruthtoledo.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18380","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/wordpress.thetruthtoledo.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/wordpress.thetruthtoledo.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wordpress.thetruthtoledo.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wordpress.thetruthtoledo.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18380"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/wordpress.thetruthtoledo.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18380\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18381,"href":"https:\/\/wordpress.thetruthtoledo.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18380\/revisions\/18381"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/wordpress.thetruthtoledo.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18380"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wordpress.thetruthtoledo.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18380"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wordpress.thetruthtoledo.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18380"},{"taxonomy":"wf_post_folders","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wordpress.thetruthtoledo.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/wf_post_folders?post=18380"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}